Flashes in the huddle late in their 92-36 win over Hiram Monday. (WbbFlashes photo.)
Since the start of the blog, I’ve done a “Keys to the Season” and/or a “Keys to the Conference Season.”
I’m going to do it a little differently this season, instead listing some benchmark numbers I think the team has to meet in order to have a good MAC season. I define that as finishing in the top four and getting a bye to the quarterfinals of the league tournament in Cleveland.
70 points
The Flashes have scored 70 points in six of their seven non-conference wins. They haven’t scored 70 in any of their four losses. Last year’s team averaged just 65.5 points a game and won on defense; this year’s has to score.
The team struggled on defense early in the season but has allowed an average of 63.5 over the last four games. Two were against good teams (loss to Purdue 77-64 and loss to Troy 71-64. Two were to less-good teams (St. Bonaventure and Georgia Southern).
(I’m not counting statistics from KSU’s 92-36 win over Hiram in any of this. The Flashes won’t play a team anywhere near as weak as Division III Hiram in the MAC.)
So 70 in the benchmark: Score at least 70. Hold the opponent under 70.
40 percent shooting.
Here’s another number that can count both on offense and defense.
Kent State has made more than 40% of its shots in only three games — Duquesne, Fort Wayne and Robert Morris.
Seven opponents have shot better than 40%.
That’s not sustainable. The last four opponents — none of which were great shooting teams — have averaged almost exactly 40%. That’s encouraging. The average shooting percentage in the MAC last season and so far this year is about 40.
So once again the goal is to shoot at least 40% and hold opponents below that number.
+5 free throws
Kent State has made up for its below-average shooting at the foul line and with turnovers.
The Flashes outscored opponents at the foul line by about six a game so far this season. It’s been a lot more than that — plus-13 — in the six games they’ve won. Over coach Todd Starkey’s four seasons, the Flashes have been among the nation’s leaders in free throws attempted and made. It’s made a difference in many games.
+5 points off turnovers
It’s hard to believe I’m writing this. Throughout the five years before Starkey arrived and through his first two years, the Flashes were near the bottom of the MAC in turnover margin. Currently they’re second.
The number I’m using is points off turnovers, however. As Starkey has said consistently after games, turnovers don’t do much good unless they become points.
Kent State has on average scored six more points off turnovers than its opponents. It even had an advantage against the three Big Ten teams it lost to. But a warning: Troy was the toughest mid-major the Flashes have played and the kind of team they will have to beat to compete in the MAC. The Flashes were even in turnovers through three quarters and minus-10 in the fourth quarter, and the game slipped away.
14 assists
“We’re a much better team when we share the ball,” Starkey said after the Hiram game, when the Flashes had 25 assists, their most in seven years.
But KSU hasn’t done that very well over the last two years. The Flashes were in the bottom 40 in the country in assists per game last season at 10.8 per game. This season isn’t a lot better at 11.2 (not counting the Hiram game).
14 was the Starkey mentioned after the Flashes beat Robert Morris 82-81. They had 18 assists in that game. But over the last three, they’ve averaged 10.7.
Fourteen is a pretty modest goal. It would have been sixth in the MAC last season.
10 points a game from the bench
Kent State’s most significant victories have been in one-possession games against Duquesne, Youngstown State and Robert Morris. Its closest loss came in the last 19 seconds when Troy outscored the Flashes 7-0 in the last 19 seconds.
In those four games, KSU got a total of 10 points from its reserves. It was 0 against Duquesne, two versus Robert Morris and Troy and five against YSU. (I’m counting Megan Carter as a starter in the opener. She wasn’t in the lineup because of an injury but came in and played 35 minutes. She’s started every other game.)
Kent’s five starters all average in double figures. But no one else averages more than four points per game. Clare Kelly scored 20 points against Hiram; Hannah Young had 14. If they can score six or eight in most games, and reserve forwards Ali Poole, Sydney Brinlee and Monique Smith can add a couple of baskets, life will be a lot easier.
Keeping track
I’ll update how the team is doing on this numbers throughout the conference season.