For a happy moment, the Kent State women’s basketball team ranks in the top 25 in the country in the RPI, a widely used ratings system.
The Flashes are ranked 17th of the nation’s 329 Division I teams by WarrenNolan.com and 21st by RealTimeRPI.com.
RPI is based on a team’s record, its opponents’ record and opponents’ opponents’ record. Road wins are rated about double of home wins; home wins and road losses count less.
Kent State’s rankings — the highest I can remember in 30 years of following the team — come after the Flashes won three games in a row against Ohio, Toledo and Duquesne. Those three teams have a combined record of 12-5. Ohio (4-2 with a 65 RPI) and Duquesne (2-3 and 73) rank in the top 100 RPI, as do earlier opponents Ohio State (4-0 and 23) and Saint Francis (4-4 with a 61 RPI). Ohio State beat the Flashes 103-47 in KSU’s opener and Saint Francis won 67-64 at home.
Toledo is 5-1 with a 147 RPI.
The big reason behind KSU’s ranking is strength of schedule. RealTimeRPI ranks the Flashes’ schedule 16th toughest in the country; WarrenNolan ranks it eighth. Kent’s five opponents have a combined record of 16-7.
Kent State is hot on 3-pointers, rebounds well at the end to beat Duquesne 73-66.
You’re starting the see the problems with early-season RPIs.
How can Ohio State, a team that beat Kent by 56 points, rank behind the Flashes? How can Toledo rank 86 spots behind Saint Francis when Saint Francis has lost three more games?
RPIs are like this at the beginning of every season. They have usually started to settle down by New Year’s, but this season of COVID is crazier than most.
(A quick attempt at explanations: All four of Ohio State’s games have been at home, and its opponents’ records total 10-10. Toledo won four of its games at home, and its opponents are 10-22. Saint Francis opponents are 28-14.)
At one time, a top-50 RPI was a likely ticket to the NCAA Tournament. In recent years, the ratings system has been less in favor. The weakness in the RPI is that it rewards playing good teams more than it rewards beating good teams.
As of this season, the NCAA has dropped the RPI as part of its tournament selection criteria. Instead it’s using something called the NET, which emphasizes something called “adjusted net efficiency.” That measure’s key components are points per possession and opponents’ points per possession. It’s adjusted for strength of schedule and whether victories were at home or on the road.
The NCAA hasn’t released its first NET rankings yet. Kent State isn’t likely to fare as well in it as in the RPI, especially this season. First, the lopsided Ohio State game will haunt KSU statistically all season. Second, as the Power conferences get into league play, their strength of schedules (and rankings) will go up.
Still, it’s something to talk about it as we wait for teams to get back on the court. For the MAC, that’s Saturday, when the Flashes play at Eastern Michigan. EMU’s record is 4-3; its RPI is 140.